WN 2808 · MCO → SMF

departs 6:30 PM ET · arrives 9:08 PM PT

Forecast issued Mon 3:00 AM ET · 16h before departure

Arrive at SMF more than 15 minutes late?

45% chance · ±4 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SMF?

On time or early
54%
15–30 min late
17%
30 min–1 hour late
15%
1–2 hours late
9%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 6pm departures from MCO are often late

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at MCO

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mondays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SMF

Weather at each end

MCO (origin) Gusts8 kt Ceiling6,000 ft Visibility7 mi Precip0.29 in

SMF (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 2808 · MCO → SMF

Odds over time

How late will it get to SMF?