WN 2808 · MCO → SMF

departs 6:30 PM ET · arrives 9:08 PM PT

Forecast issued Sun 10:00 PM ET · 20h before departure

Arrive at SMF more than 15 minutes late?

48% chance · ±8 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SMF?

On time or early
52%
15–30 min late
20%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
10%
Over 2 hours late
6%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 0.4 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at MCO that day

↑ 6pm departures from MCO are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mondays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SMF

Weather at each end

MCO (origin) Gusts8 kt Ceiling6,000 ft Visibility9 mi Precip0.23 in

SMF (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 2808 · MCO → SMF

Odds over time

How late will it get to SMF?