WN 2809 · MCO → SRQ

departs 10:40 AM ET · arrives 11:35 AM ET

Forecast issued Sun 3:00 PM ET · 20h before departure

Arrive at SRQ more than 15 minutes late?

17% chance · ±2 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SRQ?

On time or early
82%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This flight has been late 26% of the time recently

↑ 0.3 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at MCO that day

↑ 10am departures from MCO are often late

↓ Mondays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

Weather at each end

MCO (origin) Gusts9 kt Ceiling3,500 ft Visibility7 mi Precip0.40 in

SRQ (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceiling7,000 ft Visibility9 mi Precip0.08 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 2809 · MCO → SRQ

Odds over time

How late will it get to SRQ?