Schedule: a typical summer Monday (the flights of Jul 27, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 284
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, October 5
WN 284 · PVD → MCO
departs 6:35 PM ET · arrives 9:30 PM ET
Forecast issued Sat 4:00 PM ET · 51h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Mon 10/5
Fri 10/9 28%
Odds over time
Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?
39%
chance · ±5 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
39%
Leave 15+ late
31%
Arrive 1h+ late
16%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
6.8d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 14% · changed – in 24h
–
39%
Yes 39%
No 61%
Leave PVD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 17% · changed – in 24h
–
31%
Yes 31%
No 69%
Arrive at MCO more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed – in 24h
–
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to MCO?
On time or early
60%
15–30 min late
16%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
11%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 400 ft, 0.5 in of rain forecast at MCO that day
↑
Arrivals into MCO at that hour are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Mondays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
MCO usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
PVD (origin)
Gusts 22 kt Ceiling 300 ft Visibility 8 mi Precip 0.07 in
MCO (destination)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling 400 ft Visibility 5 mi Precip 0.54 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.