Schedule: a typical summer Monday (the flights of Jul 27, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 2890
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, October 5 Tomorrow
WN 2890 · SEA → OAK
departs 8:25 PM PT · arrives 10:40 PM PT
Forecast issued Sun 7:00 AM ET · 40h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Mon 10/5
Fri 10/9 33%
Odds over time
Arrive at OAK more than 15 minutes late?
20%
chance · ±5 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
20%
Leave 15+ late
28%
Arrive 1h+ late
8%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
7.0d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at OAK more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
20%
Yes 20%
No 80%
Leave SEA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 30% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
28%
Yes 28%
No 72%
Arrive at OAK more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to OAK?
On time or early
79%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
This flight has been late 49% of the time recently
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
8pm departures from SEA are often late
↓
Mondays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 0.8 mi forecast at SEA that day
Weather at each end
SEA (origin)
Gusts 6 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 8 mi Precip none
OAK (destination)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 8 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.