WN 2895 · HNL → LAS

took off 8:20 AM HT · expected to land 4:27 PM PT (scheduled 8:06 AM HT → 4:47 PM PT)

Forecast issued Mon 2:00 PM ET · 0h before departure

Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?

<1% chance · ±0 pts +2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to LAS?

LIVE

On time or early
100%
15–30 min late
<1%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Other factors

↑ Arrivals into LAS at that hour are often late

↑ LAS is prone to delays

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LAS

↓ This flight has been late 11% of the time recently

Weather at each end

HNL (origin) Gusts18 kt Ceiling4,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.01 in

LAS (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 2895 · HNL → LAS

Odds over time

How late will it get to LAS?