WN 2940 · SMF → STL

departs 1:30 PM PT · arrives 7:17 PM CT

Forecast issued Sun 11:00 PM ET · 18h before departure

Arrive at STL more than 15 minutes late?

23% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to STL?

On time or early
77%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into STL at that hour are often late

↑ WN's recent on-time record

↑ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at STL

↓ Mondays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

SMF (origin) Gusts9 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

STL (destination) Gusts7 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 2940 · SMF → STL

Odds over time

How late will it get to STL?