WN 2944 · MCO → BHM

departs 8:30 PM ET · arrives 9:13 PM CT

Forecast issued Mon 2:00 AM ET · 18h before departure

Arrive at BHM more than 15 minutes late?

46% chance · ±6 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to BHM?

On time or early
53%
15–30 min late
17%
30 min–1 hour late
15%
1–2 hours late
9%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at MCO

↑ 8pm departures from MCO are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mondays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Cloud base down to 1,300 ft forecast at BHM that day

Weather at each end

MCO (origin) Gusts8 kt Ceiling6,000 ft Visibility7 mi Precip0.23 in

BHM (destination) Gusts14 kt Ceiling1,300 ft Visibility9 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 2944 · MCO → BHM

Odds over time

How late will it get to BHM?