WN 2953 · MDW → PHL

departs 1:30 PM CT · arrives 4:38 PM ET

Forecast issued Sun 3:00 PM ET · 24h before departure

Arrive at PHL more than 15 minutes late?

16% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to PHL?

On time or early
84%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into PHL at that hour are often late

↑ WN's recent on-time record

↑ 1pm departures from MDW are often late

↓ Mondays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at MDW

Weather at each end

MDW (origin) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

PHL (destination) Gusts20 kt Ceiling1,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 2953 · MDW → PHL

Odds over time

How late will it get to PHL?