WN 296 · SMF → SAN

departs 3:15 PM PT · arrives 4:56 PM PT

Forecast issued Sun 11:00 PM ET · 19h before departure

Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?

32% chance · ±5 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SAN?

On time or early
67%
15–30 min late
19%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ SAN is prone to delays

↑ This flight has been late 29% of the time recently

↑ Arrivals into SAN at that hour are often late

↓ Mondays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SAN

Weather at each end

SMF (origin) Gusts9 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SAN (destination) Gusts17 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 296 · SMF → SAN

Odds over time

How late will it get to SAN?