Schedule: a typical summer Monday (the flights of Jul 27, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 3014
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, October 5 Today
WN 3014 · LAX → OAK
departs 9:00 AM PT · arrives 10:20 AM PT
Forecast issued Mon 2:00 AM ET · 10h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Fri 10/9 12%
Odds over time
Arrive at OAK more than 15 minutes late?
11%
chance · ±0 pts
+2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
11%
Leave 15+ late
18%
Arrive 1h+ late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
6.5d
2d
1d
Now
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at OAK more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Leave LAX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed +8 pts in 24h
+8 pts
18%
Yes 18%
No 82%
Arrive at OAK more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 100%
How late will it get to OAK?
On time or early
89%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
LAX is busy at that time
↑
9am departures from LAX are often late
↑
LAX is prone to delays
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at OAK
↓
Mondays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
LAX (origin)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
OAK (destination)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 9 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.