WN 3131 · MSY → MDW

departs 5:50 PM CT · arrives 8:08 PM CT

Forecast issued Sun 11:00 PM ET · 20h before departure

Arrive at MDW more than 15 minutes late?

36% chance · ±3 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to MDW?

On time or early
64%
15–30 min late
18%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into MDW at that hour are often late

↑ 5pm departures from MSY are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at MDW

↓ Mondays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

MSY (origin) Gusts16 kt Ceiling800 ft Visibility7.71429 mi Precip0.20 in

MDW (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 3131 · MSY → MDW

Odds over time

How late will it get to MDW?