Schedule: a typical summer Monday (the flights of Jul 27, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 3480
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, October 5 Today
WN 3480 · SAN → BNA
departs 10:40 PM PT · arrives 4:45 AM CT
Forecast issued Mon 3:00 AM ET · 23h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Fri 10/9 15%
Sun 10/11 51%
Odds over time
Arrive at BNA more than 15 minutes late?
14%
chance · ±1 pts
+1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
14%
Leave 15+ late
18%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
7.1d
2d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at BNA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Leave SAN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 15% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
18%
Yes 18%
No 82%
Arrive at BNA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to BNA?
On time or early
85%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
SAN is busy at that time
↑
SAN is prone to delays
↓
Arrivals into BNA at that hour are usually not late
↓
Mondays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
SAN (origin)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
BNA (destination)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.