Schedule: a typical summer Monday (the flights of Jul 27, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 3534
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, October 5 Tomorrow
WN 3534 · SAN → SFO
departs 7:00 PM PT · arrives 8:45 PM PT
Forecast issued Sun 9:00 AM ET · 37h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Mon 10/5
Fri 10/9 44%
Odds over time
Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?
28%
chance · ±2 pts
+1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
28%
Leave 15+ late
35%
Arrive 1h+ late
12%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.9d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 23% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
28%
Yes 28%
No 72%
Leave SAN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 28% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
35%
Yes 35%
No 65%
Arrive at SFO more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
12%
Yes 12%
No 88%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SFO?
On time or early
72%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
This flight has been late 52% of the time recently
↑
Arrivals into SFO at that hour are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Mondays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SFO
Weather at each end
SAN (origin)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
SFO (destination)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 7 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.