Schedule: a typical summer Monday (the flights of Jul 27, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 3551
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, October 5 Tomorrow
WN 3551 · TUS → SAN
departs 7:00 PM MT · arrives 8:20 PM PT
Forecast issued Sun 9:00 AM ET · 37h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Mon 10/5
Fri 10/9 46%
Odds over time
Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?
35%
chance · ±4 pts
+1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
35%
Leave 15+ late
34%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.9d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 28% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
35%
Yes 35%
No 65%
Leave TUS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 33% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
34%
Yes 34%
No 66%
Arrive at SAN more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SAN?
On time or early
65%
15–30 min late
16%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
This flight has been late 44% of the time recently
↑
SAN is prone to delays
↓
Mondays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SAN
Weather at each end
TUS (origin)
Gusts 29 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
SAN (destination)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.