Schedule: a typical summer Monday (the flights of Jul 27, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 3561
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, October 5
WN 3561 · SAT → BWI
departs 3:45 PM CT · arrives 8:10 PM ET
Forecast issued Sat 7:00 AM ET · 58h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Mon 10/5
Fri 10/9 20%
Odds over time
Arrive at BWI more than 15 minutes late?
15%
chance · ±1 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
15%
Leave 15+ late
24%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.7d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at BWI more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 12% · changed – in 24h
–
15%
Yes 15%
No 85%
Leave SAT more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 18% · changed – in 24h
–
24%
Yes 24%
No 76%
Arrive at BWI more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed – in 24h
–
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to BWI?
On time or early
85%
15–30 min late
2%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Arrivals into BWI at that hour are often late
↓
Mondays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
BWI usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
SAT (origin)
Gusts 24 kt Ceiling 3,900 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
BWI (destination)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 0.5 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.