Schedule: a typical summer Monday (the flights of Jul 27, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 3563
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, October 5
WN 3563 · OAK → BUR
departs 3:30 PM PT · arrives 4:40 PM PT
Forecast issued Sat 11:00 PM ET · 44h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 35%
Mon 10/5
Fri 10/9 25%
Odds over time
Arrive at BUR more than 15 minutes late?
20%
chance · ±3 pts
+1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
20%
Leave 15+ late
27%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.8d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at BUR more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
20%
Yes 20%
No 80%
Leave OAK more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 27% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
27%
Yes 27%
No 73%
Arrive at BUR more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to BUR?
On time or early
80%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
Other factors
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↓
Mondays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at BUR
Weather at each end
OAK (origin)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 0.5 mi Precip none
BUR (destination)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.