WN 3587 · SMF → BOI

departs 9:40 PM PT · arrives 12:17 AM MT

Forecast issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 13h before departure

Arrive at BOI more than 15 minutes late?

26% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to BOI?

On time or early
73%
15–30 min late
16%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ WN's recent on-time record

↑ 9pm departures from SMF are often late

↓ Mondays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SMF

Weather at each end

SMF (origin) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

BOI (destination) Gusts12 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 3587 · SMF → BOI

Odds over time

How late will it get to BOI?