Schedule: a typical summer Monday (the flights of Jul 27, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 3630 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Monday, October 5

WN 3630 · SEA → SMF

departs 7:35 AM PT · arrives 9:35 AM PT

Forecast issued Sat 10:00 PM ET · 37h before departure

Arrive at SMF more than 15 minutes late?

7% chance · ±1 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SMF?

On time or early
93%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ SEA is busy at that time

↑ SEA is prone to delays

↑ This flight has been late 15% of the time recently

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ Arrivals into SMF at that hour are usually not late

Weather at each end

SEA (origin) Gusts7 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SMF (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 3630 · SEA → SMF

Odds over time

How late will it get to SMF?