WN 3729 · SAT → PHX

took off 5:19 PM CT · landed 5:16 PM MT (scheduled 5:10 PM CT → 5:39 PM MT)

Forecast issued Mon 7:00 PM ET · 1h after departure

Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?

Not late chance · ±0 pts −4 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late did it get to PHX?

RESOLVED

On time or early
✓
15–30 min late
–
30 min–1 hour late
–
1–2 hours late
–
Over 2 hours late
–

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ Arrivals into PHX at that hour are often late

↑ PHX is prone to delays

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PHX

↓ Mondays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

SAT (origin) Gusts25 kt Ceiling3,700 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

PHX (destination) Gusts21 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 3729 · SAT → PHX

Odds over time

How late did it get to PHX?