Schedule: a typical summer Monday (the flights of Jul 27, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 3800
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, October 5 Tomorrow
WN 3800 · ELP → PHX
departs 9:30 PM MT · arrives 9:55 PM MT
Forecast issued Sun 2:00 PM ET · 34h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Mon 10/5
Fri 10/9 38%
Odds over time
Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?
33%
chance · ±7 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
33%
Leave 15+ late
30%
Arrive 1h+ late
8%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
7.0d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 27% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
33%
Yes 33%
No 67%
Leave ELP more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 27% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
30%
Yes 30%
No 70%
Arrive at PHX more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 100%
How late will it get to PHX?
On time or early
67%
15–30 min late
18%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
Arrivals into PHX at that hour are often late
↑
PHX is prone to delays
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at PHX
↓
Mondays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
ELP (origin)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
PHX (destination)
Gusts 22 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.