Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 3864 SCHEDULED · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Monday, October 5 Yesterday

WN 3864 · SJU → MCO

departs 10:54 PM AT · arrives 1:24 AM ET

Your aircraft is N8631A (B738), coming in as WN 3431 from MCO: landed 9:43 PM AT.

Forecast issued Mon 10:00 PM ET · 1h before departure

Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?

16% chance · ±0 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at MCO

↑ Arrivals into MCO at that hour are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mondays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ MCO usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

SJU (origin) Gusts17 kt Ceiling5,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.21 in

MCO (destination) Gusts14 kt Ceiling9,600 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 3864 · SJU → MCO

Odds over time