WN 3917 · SMF → HOU

departs 2:05 PM PT · arrives 7:49 PM CT

Forecast issued Sun 11:00 PM ET · 18h before departure

Arrive at HOU more than 15 minutes late?

25% chance · ±1 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to HOU?

On time or early
74%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into HOU at that hour are often late

↑ 2pm departures from SMF are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mondays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SMF

Weather at each end

SMF (origin) Gusts9 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

HOU (destination) Gusts19 kt Ceiling1,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 3917 · SMF → HOU

Odds over time

How late will it get to HOU?