Schedule: a typical summer Monday (the flights of Jul 27, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 3964
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, October 5 Tomorrow
WN 3964 · STL → MSY
departs 9:50 PM CT · arrives 11:40 PM CT
Forecast issued Sat 11:00 PM ET · 48h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 37%
Mon 10/5
Fri 10/9 26%
Odds over time
Arrive at MSY more than 15 minutes late?
17%
chance · ±3 pts
−2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
17%
Leave 15+ late
21%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
7.0d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MSY more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 12% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
17%
Yes 17%
No 83%
Leave STL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 19% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
21%
Yes 21%
No 79%
Arrive at MSY more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MSY?
On time or early
82%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 500 ft, 0.3 in of rain forecast at MSY that day
↑
9pm departures from STL are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at STL
↓
Mondays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
STL (origin)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
MSY (destination)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 500 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 0.26 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.