Schedule: a typical summer Monday (the flights of Jul 27, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 3994
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, October 5 Tomorrow
WN 3994 · STS → SAN
departs 5:10 PM PT · arrives 6:50 PM PT
Forecast issued Sun 9:00 AM ET · 35h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 38%
Mon 10/5
Fri 10/9 34%
Odds over time
Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?
22%
chance · ±1 pts
−2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
22%
Leave 15+ late
27%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.8d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Leave STS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 23% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
27%
Yes 27%
No 73%
Arrive at SAN more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SAN?
On time or early
78%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
SAN is prone to delays
↑
Arrivals into SAN at that hour are often late
↓
Mondays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SAN
Weather at each end
STS (origin)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling 100 ft Visibility 0.3 mi Precip none
SAN (destination)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.