Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4009 LANDED 9:30 AM PT, ~3 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Monday, October 5 Yesterday

WN 4009 · SNA → SJC

took off 8:35 AM PT · landed 9:30 AM PT (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Mon 10:00 PM ET · 10h after departure

Arrive at SJC more than 15 minutes late?

7% chance · ±0 pts +1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ SNA is prone to delays

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SJC

Weather at each end

SNA (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SJC (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility9 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 4009 · SNA → SJC

Odds over time