Schedule: a typical summer Monday (the flights of Jul 27, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4009
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, October 5 Tomorrow
WN 4009 · TPA → BWI
departs 9:05 AM ET · arrives 11:25 AM ET
Forecast issued Sun 7:00 AM ET · 26h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Mon 10/5
Fri 10/9 8%
Odds over time
Arrive at BWI more than 15 minutes late?
8%
chance · ±0 pts
−1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
8%
Leave 15+ late
9%
Arrive 1h+ late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
3%
6%
9%
12%
6.4d
2d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at BWI more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Leave TPA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Arrive at BWI more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to BWI?
On time or early
91%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at TPA
↓
Mondays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Arrivals into BWI at that hour are usually not late
Weather at each end
TPA (origin)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling 5,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.14 in
BWI (destination)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling 300 ft Visibility 4.66667 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.