Schedule: a typical summer Monday (the flights of Jul 27, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4024
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, October 5 Tomorrow
WN 4024 · BWI → MEM
departs 3:15 PM ET · arrives 4:30 PM CT
Forecast issued Sun 7:00 AM ET · 32h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Mon 10/5
Fri 10/9 18%
Odds over time
Arrive at MEM more than 15 minutes late?
14%
chance · ±0 pts
−2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
14%
Leave 15+ late
24%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.6d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MEM more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Leave BWI more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 20% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
24%
Yes 24%
No 76%
Arrive at MEM more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MEM?
On time or early
85%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
3pm departures from BWI are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Mondays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Cloud base down to 333 ft forecast at BWI that day
Weather at each end
BWI (origin)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling 300 ft Visibility 4.66667 mi Precip none
MEM (destination)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.