Schedule: a typical summer Monday (the flights of Jul 27, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4025
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, October 5
WN 4025 · TPA → HOU
departs 8:40 PM ET · arrives 9:55 PM CT
Forecast issued Sat 7:00 PM ET · 50h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Sun 10/4 56%
Mon 10/5
Fri 10/9 31%
Odds over time
Arrive at HOU more than 15 minutes late?
41%
chance · ±7 pts
+6 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
41%
Leave 15+ late
35%
Arrive 1h+ late
14%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.9d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at HOU more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 15% · changed +6 pts in 24h
+6 pts
41%
Yes 41%
No 59%
Leave TPA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 18% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
35%
Yes 35%
No 65%
Arrive at HOU more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to HOU?
On time or early
58%
15–30 min late
18%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 700 ft forecast at TPA that day
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
Arrivals into HOU at that hour are often late
↓
Mondays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
TPA is quiet at that time
Weather at each end
TPA (origin)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling 6,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.19 in
HOU (destination)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 1,033 ft Visibility 9.33333 mi Precip 0.03 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.