WN 4041 · LAS → MSY

departs 7:55 AM PT · arrives 1:19 PM CT

Forecast issued Sun 11:00 AM ET · 24h before departure

Arrive at MSY more than 15 minutes late?

15% chance · ±3 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to MSY?

On time or early
84%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 600 ft forecast at MSY that day

↑ LAS is prone to delays

↑ This flight has been late 26% of the time recently

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LAS

Weather at each end

LAS (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

MSY (destination) Gusts16 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility4 mi Precip0.20 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 4041 · LAS → MSY

Odds over time

How late will it get to MSY?