Schedule: a typical summer Monday (the flights of Jul 27, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4120
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, October 5
WN 4120 · MDW → LGA
departs 7:45 PM CT · arrives 11:00 PM ET
Forecast issued Sat 2:00 AM ET · 67h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Sun 10/4 46%
Mon 10/5
Fri 10/9 38%
Odds over time
Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?
41%
chance · ±7 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
41%
Leave 15+ late
38%
Arrive 1h+ late
10%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.9d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 20% · changed – in 24h
–
41%
Yes 41%
No 59%
Leave MDW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 25% · changed – in 24h
–
38%
Yes 38%
No 62%
Arrive at LGA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed – in 24h
–
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to LGA?
On time or early
58%
15–30 min late
16%
30 min–1 hour late
15%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
LGA is prone to delays
↑
Arrivals into LGA at that hour are often late
↑
This flight has been late 47% of the time recently
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at MDW
↓
Mondays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
MDW (origin)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
LGA (destination)
Gusts 24 kt Ceiling 1,300 ft Visibility 5 mi Precip 0.02 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.