Schedule: a typical summer Monday (the flights of Jul 27, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4136
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, October 5 Tomorrow
WN 4136 · DEN → RNO
departs 4:10 PM MT · arrives 5:40 PM PT
Forecast issued Sun 10:00 AM ET · 32h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 31%
Mon 10/5
Fri 10/9 23%
Odds over time
Arrive at RNO more than 15 minutes late?
19%
chance · ±5 pts
+3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
19%
Leave 15+ late
26%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.8d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at RNO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
19%
Yes 19%
No 81%
Leave DEN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 27% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
26%
Yes 26%
No 74%
Arrive at RNO more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 100%
How late will it get to RNO?
On time or early
81%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
4pm departures from DEN are often late
↑
This flight has been late 34% of the time recently
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Mondays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at DEN
Weather at each end
DEN (origin)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
RNO (destination)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.