Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4136 SCHEDULED · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Monday, October 5 Today

WN 4136 · STT → MCO

departs 3:03 PM AST · arrives 5:43 PM ET

Forecast issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 3h before departure

Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?

27% chance · ±0 pts −3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into MCO at that hour are often late

↑ Cloud base down to 1,100 ft, 0.3 in of rain forecast at MCO that day

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mondays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ MCO usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

STT (origin) Gusts20 kt Ceiling1,600 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.02 in

MCO (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceiling1,300 ft Visibility8 mi Precip0.24 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 4136 · STT → MCO

Odds over time