Schedule: a typical summer Monday (the flights of Jul 27, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4159
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, October 5 Tomorrow
WN 4159 · BWI → DTW
departs 6:00 PM ET · arrives 7:35 PM ET
Forecast issued Sun 7:00 AM ET · 35h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Mon 10/5
Fri 10/9 30%
Odds over time
Arrive at DTW more than 15 minutes late?
19%
chance · ±1 pts
−3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
19%
Leave 15+ late
31%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.8d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DTW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 19% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
19%
Yes 19%
No 81%
Leave BWI more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 32% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
31%
Yes 31%
No 69%
Arrive at DTW more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to DTW?
On time or early
80%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
This flight has been late 32% of the time recently
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↓
Mondays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at DTW
Weather at each end
BWI (origin)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling 300 ft Visibility 4.66667 mi Precip none
DTW (destination)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.