Schedule: a typical summer Monday (the flights of Jul 27, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4159
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, October 5 Tomorrow
WN 4159 · DTW → STL
departs 8:15 PM ET · arrives 8:50 PM CT
Forecast issued Sun 7:00 AM ET · 37h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Mon 10/5
Fri 10/9 25%
Odds over time
Arrive at STL more than 15 minutes late?
16%
chance · ±1 pts
+1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
16%
Leave 15+ late
28%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.8d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at STL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 18% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Leave DTW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 28% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
28%
Yes 28%
No 72%
Arrive at STL more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 100%
How late will it get to STL?
On time or early
83%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
8pm departures from DTW are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↓
Mondays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at DTW
Weather at each end
DTW (origin)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
STL (destination)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.