Schedule: a typical summer Monday (the flights of Jul 27, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4175
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, October 5 Tomorrow
WN 4175 · DEN → SNA
departs 11:25 AM MT · arrives 12:50 PM PT
Forecast issued Sun 10:00 AM ET · 27h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 16%
Mon 10/5
Fri 10/9 21%
Odds over time
Arrive at SNA more than 15 minutes late?
18%
chance · ±3 pts
+1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
18%
Leave 15+ late
22%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.6d
2d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SNA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 17% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
18%
Yes 18%
No 82%
Leave DEN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Arrive at SNA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 100%
How late will it get to SNA?
On time or early
82%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
11am departures from DEN are often late
↑
This flight has been late 22% of the time recently
↑
SNA is prone to delays
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at DEN
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SNA
Weather at each end
DEN (origin)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
SNA (destination)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.