WN 417 · AUS → SAN

departs 6:00 PM CT · arrives 7:02 PM PT

Forecast issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 19h before departure

Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?

35% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SAN?

On time or early
65%
15–30 min late
15%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 6pm departures from AUS are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ Arrivals into SAN at that hour are often late

↓ Mondays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SAN

Weather at each end

AUS (origin) Gusts22 kt Ceiling3,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SAN (destination) Gusts17 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 417 · AUS → SAN

Odds over time

How late will it get to SAN?