Schedule: a typical summer Monday (the flights of Jul 27, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4191
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, October 5 Tomorrow
WN 4191 · SAN → STS
departs 9:45 PM PT · arrives 11:35 PM PT
Forecast issued Sun 7:00 AM ET · 42h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 31%
Mon 10/5
Fri 10/9 24%
Odds over time
Arrive at STS more than 15 minutes late?
19%
chance · ±2 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
19%
Leave 15+ late
22%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
7.0d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at STS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 18% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
19%
Yes 19%
No 81%
Leave SAN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 21% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Arrive at STS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to STS?
On time or early
80%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
9pm departures from SAN are often late
↑
This flight has been late 36% of the time recently
↓
Mondays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Cloud base down to 100 ft, visibility down to 0.3 mi forecast at STS that day
Weather at each end
SAN (origin)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
STS (destination)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling 100 ft Visibility 0.3 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.