Schedule: a typical summer Monday (the flights of Jul 27, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4207
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, October 5
WN 4207 · MAF → AUS
departs 1:30 PM CT · arrives 2:35 PM CT
Forecast issued Fri 5:00 PM ET · 70h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 37%
Sun 10/4 13%
Mon 10/5
Odds over time
Arrive at AUS more than 15 minutes late?
16%
chance · ±1 pts
+1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
16%
Leave 15+ late
16%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.6d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at AUS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Leave MAF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 12% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Arrive at AUS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to AUS?
On time or early
84%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Other factors
↑
Arrivals into AUS at that hour are often late
↑
Early flights usually leave on time
↓
Mondays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at MAF
Weather at each end
MAF (origin)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 3,900 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
AUS (destination)
Gusts 22 kt Ceiling 4,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.