WN 4222 · LGA → HOU

departs 11:15 AM ET · arrives 2:07 PM CT

Forecast issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 23h before departure

Arrive at HOU more than 15 minutes late?

21% chance · ±3 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to HOU?

On time or early
78%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 11am departures from LGA are often late

↑ This flight has been late 27% of the time recently

↑ LGA is prone to delays

↓ Mondays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LGA

Weather at each end

LGA (origin) Gusts23 kt Ceiling4,333 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

HOU (destination) Gusts18 kt Ceiling1,100 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 4222 · LGA → HOU

Odds over time

How late will it get to HOU?