Schedule: a typical summer Monday (the flights of Jul 27, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4252
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, October 5 Tomorrow
WN 4252 · AUS → BWI
departs 8:55 AM CT · arrives 1:10 PM ET
Forecast issued Sun 10:00 AM ET · 24h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Mon 10/5
Fri 10/9 9%
Odds over time
Arrive at BWI more than 15 minutes late?
9%
chance · ±1 pts
+1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
9%
Leave 15+ late
11%
Arrive 1h+ late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
6.4d
2d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at BWI more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Leave AUS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Arrive at BWI more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to BWI?
On time or early
91%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
This flight has been late 21% of the time recently
↓
Mondays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
BWI usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
AUS (origin)
Gusts 21 kt Ceiling 5,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
BWI (destination)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling 433 ft Visibility 4.66667 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.