WN 4254 · TYS → DEN

departs 5:30 PM ET · arrives 6:28 PM MT

Forecast issued Mon 3:00 PM ET · 2h before departure

Arrive at DEN more than 15 minutes late?

36% chance · ±0 pts +16 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to DEN?

On time or early
64%
15–30 min late
27%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into DEN at that hour are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ This flight has been late 30% of the time recently

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DEN

↓ Mondays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

TYS (origin) Gusts21 kt Ceiling3,200 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

DEN (destination) Gusts14 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 4254 · TYS → DEN

Odds over time

How late will it get to DEN?