WN 4307 · SEA → PHX

departs 8:05 AM PT · arrives 11:03 AM MT

Forecast issued Mon 10:00 AM ET · 1h before departure

Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?

28% chance · ±2 pts −2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to PHX?

On time or early
72%
15–30 min late
16%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ PHX is prone to delays

↑ SEA is prone to delays

↑ This flight has been late 32% of the time recently

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PHX

Weather at each end

SEA (origin) Gusts5 kt Ceiling100 ft Visibility0.13 mi Precipnone

PHX (destination) Gusts22 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 4307 · SEA → PHX

Odds over time

How late will it get to PHX?