Schedule: a typical summer Monday (the flights of Jul 27, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4424
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, October 5 Tomorrow
WN 4424 · AUS → MSY
departs 6:50 PM CT · arrives 8:20 PM CT
Forecast issued Sun 10:00 AM ET · 34h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Mon 10/5
Fri 10/9 34%
Odds over time
Arrive at MSY more than 15 minutes late?
28%
chance · ±2 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
28%
Leave 15+ late
31%
Arrive 1h+ late
8%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.8d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MSY more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 20% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
28%
Yes 28%
No 72%
Leave AUS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 25% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
31%
Yes 31%
No 69%
Arrive at MSY more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MSY?
On time or early
72%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
6pm departures from AUS are often late
↑
Cloud base down to 667 ft forecast at MSY that day
↓
Mondays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
AUS (origin)
Gusts 21 kt Ceiling 5,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
MSY (destination)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 0.20 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.