WN 448 · MSY → AUS

departs 7:05 PM CT · arrives 8:43 PM CT

Forecast issued Mon 7:00 AM ET · 13h before departure

Arrive at AUS more than 15 minutes late?

58% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to AUS?

On time or early
42%
15–30 min late
36%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
9%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ 7pm departures from MSY are often late

↑ Arrivals into AUS at that hour are often late

↓ Mondays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at AUS

Weather at each end

MSY (origin) Gusts15 kt Ceiling900 ft Visibility8 mi Precip0.13 in

AUS (destination) Gusts22 kt Ceiling3,200 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 448 · MSY → AUS

Odds over time

How late will it get to AUS?