Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4491 LANDED 9:14 AM ET, ~7 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Monday, October 5 Today

WN 4491 · BWI → ORF

took off 8:37 AM ET · landed 9:14 AM ET (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 3h after departure

Arrive at ORF more than 15 minutes late?

12% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 700 ft forecast at ORF that day

↑ BWI is busy at that time

↑ This flight has been late 20% of the time recently

↓ Arrivals into ORF at that hour are usually not late

↓ Mondays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

BWI (origin) Gusts17 kt Ceiling900 ft Visibility6 mi Precipnone

ORF (destination) Gusts15 kt Ceiling700 ft Visibility4 mi Precip0.03 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 4491 · BWI → ORF

Odds over time