WN 450 · OAK → BUR

departs 8:05 PM PT · arrives 9:30 PM PT

Forecast issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · 7h before departure

Arrive at BUR more than 15 minutes late?

45% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to BUR?

On time or early
55%
15–30 min late
32%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
11%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ 8pm departures from OAK are often late

↑ Arrivals into BUR at that hour are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at OAK

↓ Mondays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

OAK (origin) Gusts11 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

BUR (destination) Gusts19 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 450 · OAK → BUR

Odds over time

How late will it get to BUR?