Schedule: a typical summer Monday (the flights of Jul 27, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4513
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, October 5
WN 4513 · SJC → SAN
departs 7:00 PM PT · arrives 8:25 PM PT
Forecast issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · 46h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 48%
Mon 10/5
Fri 10/9 48%
Odds over time
Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?
39%
chance · ±3 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
39%
Leave 15+ late
31%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.9d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 28% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
39%
Yes 39%
No 61%
Leave SJC more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 26% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
31%
Yes 31%
No 69%
Arrive at SAN more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SAN?
On time or early
61%
15–30 min late
20%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
This flight has been late 50% of the time recently
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
Arrivals into SAN at that hour are often late
↓
Mondays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SAN
Weather at each end
SJC (origin)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 5 mi Precip none
SAN (destination)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 1,700 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.