WN 4523 · BNA → TYS

departs 8:40 PM CT · arrives 10:41 PM ET

Forecast issued Mon 10:00 AM ET · 12h before departure

Arrive at TYS more than 15 minutes late?

37% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to TYS?

On time or early
63%
15–30 min late
23%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 8pm departures from BNA are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ This flight has been late 25% of the time recently

↓ Mondays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at BNA

Weather at each end

BNA (origin) Gusts17 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

TYS (destination) Gusts15 kt Ceiling3,200 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 4523 · BNA → TYS

Odds over time

How late will it get to TYS?