Schedule: a typical summer Monday (the flights of Jul 27, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4558
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, October 5 Tomorrow
WN 4558 · ATL → MCO
departs 6:15 PM ET · arrives 8:00 PM ET
Forecast issued Sun 7:00 AM ET · 35h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Mon 10/5
Fri 10/9 26%
Odds over time
Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?
36%
chance · ±4 pts
+1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
36%
Leave 15+ late
32%
Arrive 1h+ late
10%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.8d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 12% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
36%
Yes 36%
No 64%
Leave ATL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 25% · changed −5 pts in 24h
−5 pts
32%
Yes 32%
No 68%
Arrive at MCO more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed −4 pts in 24h
−4 pts
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MCO?
On time or early
63%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 700 ft, 0.4 in of rain forecast at MCO that day
↑
Arrivals into MCO at that hour are often late
↑
This flight has been late 48% of the time recently
↓
Mondays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
ATL usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
ATL (origin)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 300 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 0.10 in
MCO (destination)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling 2,600 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip 0.37 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.