Schedule: a typical summer Monday (the flights of Jul 27, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4567
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, October 5 Tomorrow
WN 4567 · BWI → MSY
departs 9:20 PM ET · arrives 11:05 PM CT
Forecast issued Sun 6:00 AM ET · 39h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 37%
Mon 10/5
Fri 10/9 27%
Odds over time
Arrive at MSY more than 15 minutes late?
25%
chance · ±4 pts
+1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
25%
Leave 15+ late
31%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.9d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MSY more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 17% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
25%
Yes 25%
No 75%
Leave BWI more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 24% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
31%
Yes 31%
No 69%
Arrive at MSY more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MSY?
On time or early
75%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
This flight has been late 39% of the time recently
↑
Cloud base down to 667 ft forecast at MSY that day
↓
Mondays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Cloud base down to 333 ft forecast at BWI that day
Weather at each end
BWI (origin)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling 433 ft Visibility 5 mi Precip none
MSY (destination)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 667 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 0.20 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.